Advanced Medicare Advantage Bid Simulator

Trend, Seasonality, Credibility, Variance, Catastrophic Event

Plan Inputs

Base Expected Claims PMPM ($): 400 ``` Utilization Trend (%): 5 Specialty Drug Trend (%): 5 Seasonality Amplitude (%): 5 Member Retention (%): 90 Target Profit Margin (%): 3 Star Rating: 4 Credibility Weight (% Plan vs Regional): 80 Future Claim Variance (% for CI): 10 Include Catastrophic Specialty Shock ```

CMS & Risk Parameters

CMS Benchmark PMPM ($): 500 ``` Average RAF Score: 1.0

Risk-Adjusted Benchmark: $

Plan Bid PMPM: $

Rebate: $

Rebate Retained: $

Member Benefits: $

Quality Bonus Payment (QBP): $

Total Payment to CVS: $

Expected PMPM Range (Confidence Interval): $ - $

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