Project Purpose

This interactive demo simulates a portfolio of niche insurance lines (Cyber, Marine, Excess) incorporating: credibility weighting, tail events, layer pricing, and additional actuarial factors affecting pricing decisions.

Portfolio & Data Generation

• 5,000 synthetic policies across three lines
• Exposure and size factors included
• Claims simulated per policy with line-specific frequency and tail probabilities

Credibility & External Benchmarks

Observed frequencies blended with external benchmarks using a credibility factor Z. Table below shows observed freq, adjusted freq, mean severity, tail thresholds.

Simulation, Premiums & Interactive Factors

• Monte Carlo simulations of portfolio losses
• Premium = expected loss × (1 + expense/profit loading) × market adjustment × reinsurance adjustment
• Interactive sliders allow adjusting tail stress, expenses, market, reinsurance, and diversification